The Kansas City Chiefs are no longer cruising toward the playoffs — they’re fighting for their lives. After soaring to a season-high 91.7% probability of making the postseason following Week 9, their odds have tumbled to 70.1% — a precarious position that has fans nervously checking their phones after every game. The turning point? A shocking 23-20 overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts on November 24, 2024, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t dominant. But it was enough — barely.
From Invincible to Vulnerable
Just weeks ago, the Chiefs were untouchable. After crushing the Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, and Washington Commanders, oddsmakers at BetMGM had them at -1100 to make the playoffs. That’s a 91.7% implied probability. They were the AFC’s ironclad favorite. Then came Week 10: a 27-24 road loss to the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Then Week 11: a stunning 31-24 upset by the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High, where Kansas City was a 4.5-point favorite. The collapse was swift. BetMGM’s odds plunged from -1100 to -200 in just two weeks. The message was clear: this isn’t the same team that won back-to-back Super Bowls.Why This Season Feels Different
It’s not just the losses. It’s the pattern. The offense, once a precision machine, has sputtered. Patrick Mahomes has been hobbled by a high ankle sprain, and the offensive line — once among the league’s best — has looked ragged. The defense, long the team’s Achilles’ heel, has shown flashes but lacks consistency. And now, the AFC is a bloodbath. The Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns are all in the mix. Even the Las Vegas Raiders are surging. The Chiefs aren’t just fighting for a playoff spot — they’re fighting for relevance in a conference that’s no longer afraid of them.Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs haven’t missed the playoffs since the 2014-15 season. Nine straight postseason appearances. That’s historic. But this year feels different. The team isn’t just struggling — they’re revealing cracks. And with a 37-year-old head coach who’s never faced this kind of mid-season collapse, fans are asking: Is this the beginning of a new era… or just a bump in the road?
What’s Next: The Thanksgiving Crucible
Their next game isn’t just another contest — it’s a lifeline. On November 28, 2024, the Chiefs face the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It’s Thanksgiving Day. The national spotlight. And for Kansas City, it’s a must-win. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, a victory here would boost their odds to 79%. A loss? It drops them back to 68% — right where they were after the Broncos debacle.“If you win out over these four games, it’s all over,” said Jackson Durham, host of the “Chiefs Report by Chat Sports.” “You don’t have to think about anything else.” But Durham’s tone wasn’t confident. It was cautious. “Eighty-two percent chance to make it,” he admitted. “But that’s only if everything breaks right.”
The Math Behind the Madness
Here’s what the numbers say about the Chiefs’ remaining schedule:- Week 13 (vs. Cowboys): Win = 79% probability | Loss = 68%
- Week 14 (at Titans): Win = 82% | Loss = 68%
- Week 15 (vs. Chargers): Win = 94% | Loss = 68%
- Week 16 (at Broncos): Win = 96% | Loss = 78%
Notice something? Losing in Weeks 14 or 15 drops them to the same 68% probability. That’s not a coincidence — it’s a warning. The Broncos game in Week 16 might be their final safety net. Win there, and they’re likely in. Lose, and they’re staring at a 22% chance of missing the playoffs for the first time in a decade.
Why This Matters Beyond Arrowhead
The Chiefs aren’t just a team. They’re a symbol. For a decade, they’ve represented NFL dominance. Mahomes, Reid, the Super Bowl trophies — it’s a legacy. But this season is testing whether legacy can carry a team through adversity. If they miss the playoffs, it won’t just be a disappointment — it’ll be a seismic shift. It means the AFC has changed. The dynasty isn’t invincible anymore. And for fans of other teams, that’s the most thrilling development of the season.Meanwhile, BetMGM’s real-time odds are a mirror of fan anxiety. A $235 bet to win $100? That’s not a lock. That’s a gamble. And in the NFL, where one bad snap, one missed block, one dropped pass can unravel everything — the Chiefs are now living that gamble.
Frequently Asked Questions
How likely are the Chiefs to make the playoffs now?
Current odds from BetMGM place their probability at 70.1% (-235), but analytics from the New York Times and ESPN’s Football Power Index suggest a slightly higher 82% chance if they win their remaining games. A loss in Week 14 or 15 drops them to 68%, making every remaining contest critical. Their path is narrow but not impossible.
Why did their odds drop so sharply after Week 9?
After reaching a season-high 91.7% probability following wins over Detroit, Las Vegas, and Washington, the Chiefs lost to Buffalo and then suffered a stunning upset to Denver as 4.5-point favorites. Those losses exposed vulnerabilities — injuries to Mahomes, shaky offensive line play, and a defense that can’t close games. Oddsmakers reacted instantly, slashing their odds from -1100 to -200 in two weeks.
Has Andy Reid ever had a team miss the playoffs after a strong start?
No. Since joining the Chiefs in 2013, Reid has never missed the playoffs. His teams have made nine straight postseasons — the longest active streak in the NFL. Even in 2022, when Mahomes missed three games, they still made it as a wild card. This is the first time since 2014 that Kansas City’s playoff fate feels truly uncertain under his leadership.
What’s the biggest threat to their playoff hopes?
The AFC’s depth. Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland are all playing at elite levels, and the Raiders are surging. Even the Jets and Steelers are in the conversation. The Chiefs can’t rely on a weak schedule anymore. Every loss is now a potential knockout punch. Their remaining games against Tennessee, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver are winnable — but not guaranteed.
How does this affect Patrick Mahomes’ legacy?
It doesn’t — yet. But if the Chiefs miss the playoffs, it’ll be the first time in Mahomes’ career as a starter that he didn’t reach the postseason. That’s a blemish on an otherwise historic resume. Still, his injury (high ankle sprain) and the team’s overall decline make this more about roster depth and coaching adjustments than individual failure. His legacy remains untouchable — but this season could be the first chapter where he didn’t carry them.
Will BetMGM’s odds keep changing?
Absolutely. BetMGM adjusts odds after every game, injury report, and weather forecast. With the Chiefs’ schedule tightening, their odds will swing wildly. A win against Dallas could push them back above 80%. A loss, especially in Week 14 or 15, could drop them below 65%. This isn’t just football — it’s live betting drama.